Risk versus Uncertainty

I have read the book Radical Uncertainty: Decision Making Beyond the Numbers by Mervyn King & John Kay. As the title suggests, it talks about radical uncertainty. What is uncertainty? Its definition is simple: any uncertain knowledge. But there are two types of uncertainty:

·         Risk: Measurable or resolvable uncertainty. Probability calculations can be applied. Example: the outcome of a roulette or lottery game. Problems of this type can be called puzzles. Phenomena of this type are stationary (their properties do not change over time).

·         Radical uncertainty: Uncertainty that is not measurable. It arises when there is obscurity, ignorance, vagueness, ambiguity, ill-defined problems, lack of information. It cannot be described by probability calculations. Problems of this type can be called mysteries. Phenomena of this type are usually not stationary.

Measuring the Universal Gravitation Constant

Vertical section of Cavendish balance

In 1798, the English physicist and chemist Henry Cavendish was the first to measure Newton's universal gravitational constant (G) using a spectacularly ingenious method, which has been scarcely improved later. The method was devised by John Michell, who died without being able to carry it out, so Cavendish performed the experiment. In fact, his objective was not to measure the constant, but the mass of the Earth, but the value of the constant could be inferred from the result.

Cavendish’s instrument was a torsion balance from which two identical balls of lead hung. Next to these balls, one on one side and one on the other, hung two much larger lead spheres, 175 kg each, which attracted the first two, producing a slight twist of the balance, which Cavendish could observe by means of a small telescope located outside the enclosure, to avoid observer interference. He thus detected a displacement of about 4 mm, which he measured with a precision of ¼ mm. This allowed him to calculate that the density of the Earth is 5.448 times greater than that of water, from which it is possible to deduce the mass of the Earth and the value of G:

G=6.674×10^-11N.m²/kg²

This is the official value, which is known with quite a low accuracy (1 in 10,000), compared with other universal constants.