A new Goldilocks zone

We are familiar with the Goldilocks zone, considered necessary for the emergence of life in a planetary system. It is the region where the surface temperature of the planet allows for the existence of liquid water, which is generally considered essential for life as we know it, although in science fiction literature (remember Fred Hoyle's The Black Cloud) there are life forms that might not require this condition.

Planets very close to their star would have a temperature too high for the existence of liquid water; all the water would vaporize, and in some cases escape the planet's gravitational pull. On very distant planets, the temperature would be too low, and all the water would be in a solid state (ice). In both cases, it is thought that the emergence of life would not be possible.

Risk versus Uncertainty

I have read the book Radical Uncertainty: Decision Making Beyond the Numbers by Mervyn King & John Kay. As the title suggests, it talks about radical uncertainty. What is uncertainty? Its definition is simple: any uncertain knowledge. But there are two types of uncertainty:

·         Risk: Measurable or resolvable uncertainty. Probability calculations can be applied. Example: the outcome of a roulette or lottery game. Problems of this type can be called puzzles. Phenomena of this type are stationary (their properties do not change over time).

·         Radical uncertainty: Uncertainty that is not measurable. It arises when there is obscurity, ignorance, vagueness, ambiguity, ill-defined problems, lack of information. It cannot be described by probability calculations. Problems of this type can be called mysteries. Phenomena of this type are usually not stationary.

The weak anthropic principle: Are we alone in the galaxy?

Allen Telescope Array in the SETI project

In its initial formulation, the weak anthropic principle says that, although the appearance of intelligent life on a planet may be very unlikely, the Earth must meet all the conditions, since we exist. We know that the Milky Way contains about 10¹¹ stars. At least one (the sun) has a planet populated by intelligent life. It looks like the probability of this happening should be equal to or greater than 10^-11. Note that the weak anthropic principle does not say what the value of that probability might be.