I have read the book Radical
Uncertainty: Decision Making Beyond the Numbers by Mervyn King & John
Kay. As the title suggests, it talks about radical uncertainty. What is
uncertainty? Its definition is simple: any uncertain knowledge. But there are
two types of uncertainty:
·
Risk: Measurable or resolvable uncertainty.
Probability calculations can be applied. Example: the outcome of a roulette or
lottery game. Problems of this type can be called puzzles.
Phenomena of this type are stationary (their properties do not change over time).
· Radical uncertainty: Uncertainty that is not measurable. It arises when there is obscurity, ignorance, vagueness, ambiguity, ill-defined problems, lack of information. It cannot be described by probability calculations. Problems of this type can be called mysteries. Phenomena of this type are usually not stationary.
