Quantification of science

Chapter 2 of my book, The Quantification of History and the Future of the Western World, is dedicated to quantifying science, something I had done in the introduction to my dictionary, 1.000 grandes científicos (1,000 Great Scientists, Editorial Espasa, 1996), although in this new book I have introduced new tables and figures, and expanded upon the analyses carried out there. Here I will summarize some of the results of this chapter.

The following table shows the list of the 24 greatest scientists in the history of Greco-Roman and Western civilizations. The complete study considers the names of 1,000 scientists, who have been ordered according to the number of lines dedicated to them in the sources and encyclopedias used as the basis for the selection. Personally, I don't agree with all the results, but if I were to give in to the temptation to alter them at any point, that would have been an end to the objectivity I was seeking.

The best scientists in history

Score	Dates	Scientist
8 points	c469- 399 B.C.	Socrates
	c427-c347 B.C.	Plato
	384- 322 B.C.	Aristotle
	1596-1650	Descartes, René
	1642-1727	Newton, Isaac
	1809-1882	Darwin, Charles Robert
	1856-1939	Freud, Sigmund
	1879-1955	Einstein, Albert
7 points	1452-1519	Leonardo da Vinci
	1646-1716	Leibniz, Gottfried Wilhelm von
	1791-1867	Faraday, Michael
	1822-1895	Pasteur, Louis
	1847-1931	Edison, Thomas Alva
	1885-1962	Bohr, Niels Henrik David
6 points	c460-c377 B.C.	Hipócrates
	c287- 212 B.C.	Archimede
	1473-1543	Copernic, Nicolaus
	1561-1626	Bacon, Francis
	1564-1642	Galileo Galilei
	1706-1790	Franklin, Benjamin
	1824-1907	Kelvin (William Thomson), Lord
	1743-1794	Lavoisier, Antoine Laurent
	1623-1662	Pascal, Blaise
	1872-1970	Russell, Bertrand

 

The eight names with the highest rating seem indisputable: the three great Greek philosophers, who were also the founders of Greek science, along with five great Western scientists: Descartes, Newton, Darwin, Freud, and Einstein.

The following two figures show the overall evolution of science over 2,650 years. The first figure shows the first 2,100 years (ancient and medieval science) in century intervals. The second shows the last 550 years in quarter-century intervals.

Observing these figures reveals that modern Western science has not developed continuously: its evolution shows a considerable decline for half a century, between 1651 and 1700, corresponding to the scientists who flourished during the late 17th and early 18th centuries. The same phenomenon is also observed in Greek science, where there is a clear major period (5th, 4th, and 3rd centuries BC), with a secondary period centered on the 2nd century AD. Regarding the decline in scientific research during the 20th century, this is due to the scarcity of data for that period in the sources consulted, making the decline more apparent than real.

The book also analyzes the distribution of scientists by country and by field of study. It is shown that different countries have replaced one another during history. For example, at the beginning of the 20th century, Germany was the dominant country in science, and physics was the most practiced science. By the end of the 20th century, the United States was the dominant country, and medicine and biology were the fields with most researchers and discoveries.

Research themes between 1985 and 2009

Science	Math.	Phys.	Astro.	Chem.	Geol.	Biol.	Med.	Tecno.	TOTAL
Nr. Papers	190	886	2.755	429	1.627	5.859	7.349	2.015	21.110

 

Can we deduce something about the future evolution of science? The outlook for Western Europe seems bleak. Extrapolating current trends leads us to conclude that science is in decline in most of Europe. As for the United States, which currently holds first place, there are some alarming signs. Are we perhaps heading toward a science dominated by Asiatic countries?

The same post in Spanish

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Manuel Alfonseca