As you know, I love to point out the mistakes
made by those who make future predictions. Since I was little more than a
teenager, I have been saving clippings from the press and scientific journals that
make more or less reasonable forecasts about the evolution of science and
technology. In an
earlier article I have pointed out that such predictions are seldom met,
even when made by people who are both scientists and visionary, famous science
fiction authors such as Arthur C. Clarke or Isaac
Asimov.
I just unearthed an article published by
Alexander Kusko in the IEEE Spectrum magazine in April
1968, with the following title:
A prediction of power
system development, 1968 to 2030
And the following subtitle:
By predicting the
trend of future power system design some 60 years hence, we should be better
equipped to solve some of the technical and sociological problems that the
industry faces today.
The assumptions on which Kusko's predictions
were based were the following:
- The population will triple. What did actually happen? The
world’s population in 1968, according to UN data, was about 3.5 billion
people. The world population in 2015 was 7.35 billion. According to UN
estimates, the world population in 2030 will amount to between 8.2 and 8.8
billion people. Far from the 10.5 billion estimated by Kusko.
- Most of electrical energy will
be generated by nuclear power plants. Magnificent forecast, as nuclear energy
currently generates about 10% of the world’s total electricity
consumption.
- The total electric energy
consumption will double approximately every ten years. This is the usual failed prediction.
As energy consumption had been doubling every ten years for some decades, to
predict what would happen in the next 60 years, it was assumed that this
trend would continue indefinitely.
- Increased government regulation
of the electric power industry. That this is a successful or a failed
prediction depends on the country.
- Governments will be
increasingly interested on pollution, the end of nuclear fuels and the
conservation of nature. This assumption can be considered correct, although it is so broadly
defined, that it can always be considered successful.
- Computers will be increasingly used
to operate and control power systems. True. The same has happened with systems
of all kinds.
- Load distribution will be increasingly
managed. This
is also true.
- Cheaper cables will be invented
to carry greater power capacities. This assumption can also be considered
correct.
So far the starting assumptions in the paper.
The following are Kusko’s predictions:
- By the year 2000, the global
production of electricity will be 10 times larger than that of 1967. By
2030, it will be 80 times larger. In fact, in 2000, the world production
of electricity was only 2.5 times larger than that in 1973. In 2012, it was
just 3.7 times larger. It is hardly feasible that in eighteen more years it
will be multiplied by 20, so as to become 80 times larger than in 1967.
This prediction should be considered failed.
- Beginning in the year 2000,
superconducting cables must be used to withstand the enormous energy load. Another prediction that has
not been fulfilled.
- Nuclear plants will need to be
built in densely populated areas to serve their consumption needs. Another clearly failed
prediction.
- Generators based on gas
turbines and similar energy sources will only serve to provide energy
variations around the base level. Taking into account that these energy
sources are now providing over 60% of the world’s electricity consumption,
this prediction must also be considered unsuccessful.
Evolution of World Energy Consumption (Wikipedia) |
I am proposing here a golden
rule for the analysis of economic, technological and social
predictions:
Any prediction based on the future extension of current trends is
probably incorrect.
Manuel Alfonseca
most interesting...your golden rule makes a lot of sense, although few will heed it
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