Man likes making predictions about the future. Scientists are human beings, therefore they
make predictions about the progress to be expected in various fields of
research during the coming years, decades and even centuries. These predictions
are widely publicized by the media.
Are scientific
predictions more likely to be satisfied than other predictions of the future?
We might think so, since science is the most rational branch of human
knowledge. What should we do to confirm or disconfirm this surmise? We should apply
the scientific method to the predictions, i.e. wait until the scheduled time has
come and check whether the predictions were fulfilled or not. Such studies are
not usually done. Everyone is prepared to predict or to listen to predictions, but
few bother to check if those anticipations actually came to happen.
There are a few egregious
cases that many people remember. In 1956, the Dartmouth Summer Research Project
on Artificial Intelligence, where the term Artificial Intelligence was coined, predicted
that in less than ten years we would have computer programs capable of beating the
world chess champion, or seamlessly translating between any two human languages.
The total failure of this prediction is obvious: the first target came true 41
years later rather than 10, while the second has not been achieved after almost
60 years. As a result of this failure, research in artificial intelligence
stopped for more than a decade and was not revived until expert systems
reawakened interest in the discipline.
Let’s look at two additional examples, drawn from the field of popular science written by famous people.
In 1945, in a technical article, the engineer and writer Arthur C. Clarke
(author of the script of the famous SF film 2001, A Space Odyssey) made
an important fulfilled prediction: the future use of communications satellites
in geostationary orbit. In 1960, the French magazine Planéte published a table
of additional predictions by Clarke, drawn from his popular science publications.
The predictions were made for future decades, from 1970 to 2100. The first five
have already taken place. Of the 18 predictions we can test, Clarke only succeeded
with two: the landing on the Moon in 1970, and the mobile phone, which he
called individual radio. Among his failed predictions are the colonization of
Mars (scheduled for 2000), nuclear fusion (1980), the understanding of the
language of cetaceans (1970) and the ever present machine translation (1970).
In another case he fell dramatically short: he predicted for the year 2000 the
discovery of the structure of elementary particles (protons and neutrons),
which actually took place over 30 years before, with the theory of quarks.
Isaac Asimov |
Isaac Asimov is
another great writer of popular science, author of about four hundred books. In
an article published in 1967 (The World in 1990) he predicts the state
of the world 23 years later. These are some of his predictions:
•
The
world population will be 5 billion, the air almost impossible to breath. Smoking
will be banned outdoors. Houses will be equipped with air filters.
•
Water
pollution will cause a worldwide shortage of drinking water. Desalination of
sea water won’t be enough to solve the problem.
•
Disposing
of nuclear waste will have been solved. Nuclear fusion and solar energy will
end energy shortages.
•
Minerals
will be extracted from the seabed.
•
Cities
will sink in the ground and eventually disappear from the surface, replaced by
parks and farms. Underwater cities will also be built.
•
Cars
will be smaller and run without wheels on air mattresses. Roads will disappear.
Helicopters will proliferate, with heliodromes in most tall buildings. The underground
train will consist of a continuous succession of cars, filling the entire
circuit of every line.
•
Mail
will be distributed by pneumatic tube, directly to each floor. Phones will
transmit images in addition to voice.
•
Books
will be replaced by microfilms.
•
Food
will be based mainly on kelp, sea seeds and yeast.
•
The
colonization of Antarctica will have begun.
•
There
will be a colony on the moon and plans to land on Mars.
•
People
will work 30 hours a week.
Was the world in
1990 anything like this? Curiously enough, not one of the two great writers on
popular science was able to foresee the three most important advances in the 80s
and 90s: the personal computer, genetic engineering and the Internet.
Predicting the
future is risky, a thankless impossible task, which
puts you in an embarrassing situation where you often get nothing but ridicule
and contempt, as Isaac Asimov wrote in the above mentioned article. The
examples make this very clear. Will we refrain of making further predictions? I
doubt it: the temptation is very great.
Manuel Alfonseca
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