In an
earlier post I mentioned that many of scientific news published today are
not really new discoveries, but future previsions. What I did was analyze a specific issue of the magazine Science News,
and found that just three news, out of 18 it contained, corresponded to
concrete findings.
At the suggestion of one of my readers I made a
more meaningful analysis, by reviewing, not just a single magazine, but 40, of
four different years, to see if the effect stays constant or changes with time.
The results were as follows:
Year
|
Nr. of articles
|
% Futurology
|
1990
|
176
|
32
|
1995
|
162
|
33
|
2001
|
177
|
47
|
2006
|
167
|
40
|
2008
|
161
|
48
|
Writing futuristic articles has the advantage
that no one can prove them to be false, something that does not happen in true science,
which always is –or should be– subject
to falsification (Popper dixit).
Correction: if someone specifies a date for the
fulfillment of the predictions, their falsity can be proven by just waiting until
that date and verifying that the prediction has not been fulfilled. Or is this
not enough?
Ray Kurzweil |
The well-known futurist Ray Kurzweil, for
example, claims
that the accuracy of his predictions approaches 86%. However, some of his
supposed achievements are somewhat debatable:
- In 1990, in his book The age of intelligent machines, he
predicted that by 2009 computers with a high-resolution visual
interface range from rings and pins and credit cards up to the size of a
thin book. In 2010 he said that his prediction was essentially correct, as the size of
computers ranged from a credit card (iPod nano) to a small book (and a lot
further, although he does not mention this). Yes, they have got smaller,
but not as much as he predicted.
- In 1999, in his book The age of spiritual machines, he predicted
that by 2009 there would be personal computers... commonly embedded
in clothing and jewelry such as wristwatches, rings, earrings and other
body ornaments. In 2010 she said that this prediction had been totally correct,
because people did carry devices like iPod nano in the pocket of their
blouse or jacket.
- In 2005, in his book The singularity is near, he predicted
that by 2010 displays will be built into our eyeglasses and contact lenses and
images projected directly onto our retinas. In 2010 he said that
his prediction was essentially
correct, for Google’s glasses had made it true. Faced with
the fact that Google’s glasses had been a commercial failure, he claimed that
he never said that this technology would be accepted; just that it would
come to exist.
Apart from less important predictions, such as
those mentioned above, which may be more or less questionable, the fact is that
Kurzweil’s two great predictions (strong
artificial intelligence and immortality
within our reach) are unlikely to be fulfilled, as I have
pointed out in previous posts. But he does not consider them failures, he just
delays his predictions. Right now, for example, he says that we should be
immortal by 2045, but a few years ago he predicted it by 2035.
In general, I think futurology confirms the
famous saying attributed to baseball player Yogi Berra, who died in 2015:
It's tough to make predictions,
especially about the future.
Manuel Alfonseca
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