In my
previous post in this blog I spoke about the article entitled Are ideas getting harder to find? which can be
downloaded from the
Stanford University website. In this paper, the authors also analyze the increase
in life expectancy in the USA and the effort necessary to achieve it, and reach
the following results:
- The annual increase in life expectancy at birth in the USA was
almost double between 1900 and 1950, compared to the years between
1950 and today (see the attached figure, taken from the article). In both
periods, however, the increase was approximately linear. For
the authors, this shows that life expectancy
is one of the few macroeconomic variables that has not been subject to an
exponential increase in the last century, which contradicts
the forecasts by Ray Kurzweil and others, who resort to such exponential
increase to predict that we will achieve immortality in the near future. I
have attacked this idea in other
posts in this blog.
- To measure the research effort on the field of increased life
expectancy, the authors of the article compute the number of
publications in three specific specialties: cancer research;
breast cancer research, as an instance of the previous case; and heart
disease. This covers the most frequent causes of death by disease in
recent times. In particular, a distinction is made between the total
number of publications and those that refer to clinical studies.
- To measure the research productivity in these fields, they calculate
the number of years of increase in life expectancy per thousand
inhabitants that can be attributed to the advances made in the
three specialties mentioned, and detect that a maximum in cancer research was
reached shortly before 1990. In the case of breast cancer, the maximum was
reached by 1985. In both cases, productivity declined rapidly after those
maximums. In the case of heart disease, the evolution was more variable,
with considerable ups and downs.
- The two attached figures, also taken from the article, show the
relationship between both variables: research effort and productivity. In
each figure, the vertical axis represents the quotient between the number of
years of life expectancy increase per hundred thousand inhabitants,
divided by the number of publications (or the number of clinical studies)
carried out in that field. It can be noticed that the maximum research efficiency
was achieved, in the case of cancer, towards 1985, and in heart disease
towards 1970. In later years, the research efficiency
has been decreasing, until reaching minimum levels in the
case of clinical trials.
These are the conclusions of the authors of the article:
Between 1985 and 2006,
declining research productivity means that the number of years of life saved
per 100,000 people in the population by each publication of a clinical trial
related to cancer declined from more than 8 years to just over one year...
Next, however, notice that the changes were not monotonic if we go back to
1975. Between 1975 and the mid-1980s, research productivity for [the] cancer
research categories increased quite substantially. The production function for
new ideas is obviously complicated and heterogeneous. These cases suggest that
it may get easier to find new ideas at first before getting harder, at least in
some areas.
It is clear that the assumption that we are about to achieve
immortality thanks to explosive advances in medicine is quite far from reality.
The same post in Spanish
Thematic Thread on Linguistics and Medicine: Previous Next
Thematic Thread on Science in General: Previous Next
Manuel Alfonseca
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