Some predictions by Ray Kurzweil for 2020

Ray Kurzweil

Short-term predictions are dangerous, because the expected date does not take long to arrive, and the "prophet" runs the risk that someone (like me) takes a note of the predictions and checks if they really took place.

On December 13, 2009, the New York Daily News published an article with the following headline:

Top futurist, Ray Kurzweil, predicts how technology will change humanity by 2020

We are now in 2022, so we can check if those predictions were fulfilled. According to Kurzweil, various innovations usually considered science fiction would become reality for the majority of the population of the United States of America before 2020. He cited these:

• Longer life expectancy. In 2010, life expectancy in the United States was 78.54 years. In 2017 it still had the same value. By 2019, it had risen to 78.86 (a statistically insignificant increase). In 2020, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, it had dropped to 76.99 years, the lowest value since 2003. In 2021 it dropped another 0.4 years. Therefore, this prediction can be considered unsuccessful.
• Solar energy on steroids. Yes, it has increased somewhat, but much less than Kurzweil anticipated. The total energy consumption in the USA in 2021 was about 4,116 Terawatt-hours, of which 115 (2.8%) came from solar energy. Anything but on steroids.
• Elimination of obesity. In 2020, the obesity rate in the United States exceeded 40% for the first time and was the highest ever detected (42.4%). Anything but eliminated.
• Computing devices not held in the hand, but which will become parts of the body. It is clear that this has not been fulfilled.
• Memory devices integrated into our clothing. Surely Kurzweil will say that he was right here, because we can carry a flash memory in our pocket. In fact, it would not be the first time that he says something similar. Years ago, he used this kind of reasoning to justify that his predictions had been 80% correct. But by 2009 we could also carry a flash memory in our pocket, so we have gained nothing, except some memory capacity.
• Smart phones without a screen, replaced by glasses that will beam images directly to our retinas, creating a high-resolution virtual display hovering in air. A lot of our personal and work meetings will take place in these 3D virtual worlds. We’ll even have ways to touch one another virtually. No comment.

Ray Kurzweil's predictions in this article have reached an unprecedented level of accuracy: zero percent. If Kurzweil is the top futurist, as the NY Daily News article calls him, what will the others be like?

The same post in Spanish

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Manuel Alfonseca