Drone |
At the end of every year, many predictions are
made about the following year. This applies especially to politics and the
technological field. In this blog we are not interested in politics, so we’ll
talk a little about technological predictions. What happened to those that were
made for 2017 near the end of 2016? Have they been fulfilled?
This question is difficult to answer satisfactorily
(with a yes or no), for those who make predictions
usually do them on purpose in an ambiguous way, so the next year they’ll be
able to say that they were right. For instance:
• Practical applications of augmented reality and
virtual reality will increase a lot. In fact, this announcement is made almost
every year. In this case, the question is what exactly a lot
means. Is a lot a 10% growth in business? Or should one demand at least 100%?
Predictions, when done in this way, are almost always fulfilled.
• Package delivery by means of drones will start. This prediction has clearly not
been fulfilled. In 2017, no such thing happened.
• The end of passwords to access computers and web applications has
been announced as imminent for several years. They are supposed to be replaced
by a visual analysis of fingerprints, the iris, or the face. Attempts are being
made in those directions, but they don’t seem to be working very well. For the time
being, predictions like this should be considered failed.
• IoT (Internet of Things). This is another issue whose explosive
increase is being announced as imminent every year. So far, there has been some
increase, but it’s difficult to describe it as explosive. They usually say that
the predictions have been successful, but the increase is slower than expected.
There are, however, some voices that raise the question of whether it makes
sense for all electrical appliances in a home to be connected to the Internet,
not just because the cost may be higher than the benefits, but for the risk
that our devices will be invaded by hackers, crackers, bots and so on. After
all, we have been fighting against these attackers for three decades without
making great progress, they are always one step ahead.
Therefore, a few analysts think that the Internet of Things will end up being used
a lot in the industry, but much less at home.
Internet of Things: By Toma Cristian, Cristian Ciurea and Ion Ivan - https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=48377302 |
• Telecommuting. Another field where large increases are being
announced since decades ago. And yet, in recent years it seems that the trend
has reversed. It is even possible that it
has already touched its ceiling.
• The digital currency (bitcoin). Another permanent
prediction that does not take off. In fact, almost all analysts currently warn
investors against investing in this type of currency, because the bubble of its
value, compared to traditional currencies, could be punctured at any time.
• The end of the personal computer. Another prediction usually announced
every year, which never happens. First the PC was going to be supplanted by the
laptop; then by notebooks, tablets, smartphones; this year by hybrid convertible
laptops... But year after year the sale of classic PCs (desktop and portable)
continues enduring. Yes, they are suffering a permanent decline, but it’s
usually much less pronounced than anticipated. For 2017 it is calculated at just
2.1%.
The media overwhelm us with revolutionary
predictions for the next five, ten or fifteen years. If we take into account
their success, when they are made just for one year, we shouldn’t take them very
seriously when they are made for the medium or the long term.
Manuel Alfonseca
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