No entry: radiation risk |
We would like to live in a
world where we run no risks, but that is impossible. Whenever we get into a
car, cross the street, turn on the gas, or play sports, we run a risk. The most
elementary acts of our life entail a risk: breathing polluted air; getting exposed
to the natural radioactivity in buildings; passing under a roof just when a
tile is falling down... We have always known that life is synonymous with
danger, and we have adapted to that. In our time, however, it seems that the
threshold of risk we are willing to tolerate has fallen down. In other words: we are now more cowardly.
The media are largely to blame.
Trying to attract readers and increase their profits, they often encourage
states of opinion close to panic. We can see it in the way many news are
presented, especially those affecting health (mad cow syndrome, bird flu, SARS,
type A influenza, whatever...); the viability of human life on Earth (global
warming, collision with an asteroid); or the economy (times of crisis). Many of
these threats are real, but they are systematically exaggerated.
Physalia physalis, Portuguese man o'war |
The following headline was
published in a major Spanish newspaper on April 30, 2009: Worse
than the jellyfish: The Institute of Oceanography warns of the presence in the
Mediterranean of the Portuguese man o’war, whose sting can be fatal.
The text of the article clarifies: [A] researcher
from the Institute of Oceanography explained that the sting can be fatal for people
who have allergic responses. However, these are extreme cases.
The headline, however, has already touched the sensationalist key. It is well known
that the number of deaths caused by wasp and bee stings are more than those
caused by all the other poisonous animals together, many more than those of
jellyfish and Siphonophorae like the Portuguese man o’war. Imagine the
following headline in a newspaper: Danger in the countryside.
There are bees, whose sting can be fatal.
Nobody would take it seriously, and panic would not be caused.
The trouble is that these
states of opinion, close to panic, are often translated into irrational and
wasteful actions by politicians. In a
simulated study published in an impact journal, it was shown that, to stop an epidemic of hepatitis, it is enough to vaccinate
10% of the population in danger. Shortly after its publication,
faced with a threat of hepatitis epidemics in Spain, the different regional governments
were swept away by the domino effect and paid for the mass vaccination of all
the affected population, thus spending ten times more than necessary.
In another recent simulated
study, related to the epidemic of SARS that took place a few years ago in the
Far East, four palliative measures were compared, and the conclusion was that the
use of masks produces the minimum effect. Most effective was the
rupture of the chain of contagion, by quarantining the sick and their families.
Later, to fight the threat of a type A influenza pandemic, some governments ordered
millions of masks, of doubtful usefulness, but of greater social acceptance
than quarantine.
In 1995, the press published
with large headlines the news that a scientific study had shown that the use of
the contraceptive pill increases the risk of thromboembolism by 100%. As a
result of the resulting panic, thousands of women stopped taking the pill. It
is estimated that, only in Great Britain, there were about 10,000 more
abortions. But looking at the original article one can see that the risk of thromboembolism in women who do not take the pill
is 1 in 14,000. In women who take the pill, that risk rises to 2 in 14,000.
True, a 100% increase, but was the panic justified?
Let us look at a few annual
risks in Spain (figures from 2004 to 2008):
Risk of dying by
electrocution at home
|
1 in 4,000,000
|
Risk of dying of
influenza
|
1 in 75,000
|
Risk of dying of
AIDS
|
1 in 40,000
|
Risk of dying by
an accidental fall
|
1 in 30,000
|
Risk of dying in
an automobile accident
|
1 in 16,000
|
Risk of being
harmed by falling from bed
|
1 in 650
|
Risk of dying of
cancer
|
1 in 433
|
Risk of dying of
heart disease
|
1 in 365
|
Risk of dying
next year by whatever cause (unborn excluded)
|
1 in 120
|
Risk of suffering
a non-fatal accident at home
|
1 in 36
|
Pregnancies
ending in abortion
|
1 in 6.4
|
The
greatest current risk for the life of human beings in Spain is to be aborted
during the embryonic and fetal phases. This enormous risk (over 15%) does not
cause panic, for
adults know they are not affected, and those affected cannot complain.
The same post in Spanish
Thematic Thread on Science in General: Previous Next
Manuel Alfonseca
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