Henry Whitehead (1825-1896) |
We tend to confuse the majority opinion with the truth. This is wrong, as
expressed by Henry Whitehead:
Never fear forming a minority of one;
majorities are usually wrong.
But sometimes the consequences drawn from public opinion are even more
misleading than the opinion itself. In an article entitled Are we xenophobic? published
in a Spanish high-diffusion newspaper on March 17, 2011, the author discussed
the result of an official survey:
...Citizens believe that immigrants
receive from the state...
lots more (30.8%) or just more
(38.7%) than they contribute.
And he drew from this result the following comment:
Any sociological diagnosis would understand these figures
as a breeding ground for a reactionary and xenophobic social culture.
Saying the opposite is tantamount to denying a consistent reality.
Do immigrants actually perceive from the
State
more, the same or less than they contribute?
Without knowing the answer to this question we cannot draw any
consequence. If the answer were that they do receive the same or less, the author of
the article may be right in thinking that citizens are xenophobic. At least it
would be true that they are wrong in their assumptions. But if the answer were
that they
receive more, the conclusion would be the opposite: rather than xenophobic,
the citizens would be clever. Just for once, public opinion would not be wrong.
A survey aims to discover opinion. But isolated opinions are useless. One
cannot draw conclusions from them without confronting them with the facts,
which are the subject of statistics. Yes, I know that statistical studies can also
be manipulated. In the words of Mark Twain:
The first thing you must do is learn what
the facts are.
Then you can distort them as much as
you want.
Many media perform surveys between their readers. Most of them are
absurd, useless and irrelevant. This is always the case with a survey that only
tries to predict the future. The same happens when common people are asked
about their opinion on complex matters that require specialized knowledge or
inside information. Let’s look at a few examples:
- Who will be the winner
of the soccer Champions League? (El País, April 11, 2014).
- Do you approve
the way in which the European Union has managed the conflict in Crimea? (La
Vanguardia, March 6, 2014).
- Do you believe
the Spanish Court should order the arrest of the former president of
China? (La
Vanguardia, 11 de febrero de 2014).
- Do you think that Typhoon Haiyan is a consequence
of climate change? (La Vanguardia, 12 de noviembre de
2013).
- Which town will
be the host of the 2020 Olympics? (El País, September 6, 2013).
All these surveys except the first gave the option of answering I don’t know. If you
think a little about it, for such questions this option should have obtained
the majority response in every case. In fact, the percentage of respondents who
answered in this way was always less than 6%. For most people, it’s very
difficult to say I don’t know.
Manuel Alfonseca
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