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| Nick Bostrom |
Some philosophers, such as Nick Bostrom and the
transhumanists, have concocted an updated version of Nietzsche’s superman.
Their forecasts are based on two scientific advances presented as imminent
since several decades ago: immortality, which will be attained when the
advances in medicine increase life expectancy beyond one year per year; and
artificial intelligence, the design of super-intelligent machines. Both
advances could be combined to attain immortality through artificial
intelligence, by downloading our conscience (something we cannot even define
scientifically) into a super-intelligent machine, so that it would go on
existing inside the machine.
Unfortunately for transhumanists, the UN data do
not confirm their expectations. Let us look first at the data about the
evolution of the maximum life expectancy in the world from 1950 to 2015 (see
table 1). These and the following data have been taken from https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Mortality/.
Table 1. UN data on maximum
life expectancy
Five-year period
|
Country
|
Life expectancy
|
Increase
(years/year)
|
1950-55
|
Norway
|
72.66
|
|
1955-60
|
Norway
|
73.49
|
0.17
|
1960-65
|
Iceland
|
73.55
|
0.01
|
1965-70
|
Sweden
|
74.05
|
0.10
|
1970-75
|
Sweden
|
74.76
|
0.14
|
1975-80
|
Iceland
|
76.23
|
0.29
|
1980-85
|
Japan
|
76.95
|
0.14
|
1985-90
|
Japan
|
78.51
|
0.31
|
1990-95
|
Japan
|
79.45
|
0.19
|
1995-2000
|
Japan
|
80.48
|
0.21
|
2000-05
|
Japan
|
81.83
|
0.27
|
2005-10
|
Japan
|
82.62
|
0.16
|
2010-15
|
Hong Kong
|
83.73
|
0.22
|
It can be seen that the maximum life expectancy
passes with time from country to country, and its evolution is somewhat
chaotic, but never in these 65 years has it even approached the target of one
year increase per year. In fact, the maximum increase, which took place in
1985-90, only attained 0.31 years per year, below one third of the target.
Table 2 shows that the increase in life
expectancy, measured in a different way, far from accelerating, seems to be
decelerating.
Table 2. Latest UN
data on life expectancy
Country
|
Life expectancy
|
Increase in life expectancy (years/year)
|
|||
1995-2000
|
2010-2015
real
|
2010-2015
predicted
|
1995-2015
|
2010-2015
|
|
Hong Kong
|
79.38
|
83.73
|
83.28
|
0.29
|
0.28
|
Japan
|
80.48
|
83.30
|
83.50
|
0.19
|
0.14
|
Italy
|
78.63
|
82.84
|
82.29
|
0.28
|
0.27
|
Switzerland
|
79.23
|
82.66
|
83.23
|
0.23
|
0.18
|
Singapore
|
77.67
|
82.64
|
82.20
|
0.33
|
0.29
|
Iceland
|
78.95
|
82.30
|
82.01
|
0.22
|
0.19
|
Spain
|
78.49
|
82.27
|
82.00
|
0.25
|
0.21
|
...
|
|||||
USA
|
76.40
|
78.87
|
78.86
|
0.16
|
0.15
|
...
|
|||||
World
|
65.58
|
70.48
|
70.01
|
0.33
|
0.33
|
...
|
|||||
Sierra
Leona
|
36.69
|
50.19
|
45.34
|
0.90
|
0.86
|
It can be seen at a glance that the increase in
life expectancy in the last five years is systematically smaller than the same
increase in the last 15 years, which means that it is slowing, rather than
going up, as the transhumanists predict. The effect is stronger in the country
with the maximum life expectancy during these last 15 years (Japan) with the
consequence that in the latest data it has been superseded by the city of Hong
Kong.
The UN previsions for the increase in life
expectancy during the 21st century, for the leading country and for the world,
are shown in table 3.
Table 3. UN
predictions for life expectancy
Five-year period
|
Life expectancy
|
Increase in life expectancy (years/year)
|
||
Japan
|
World
|
Japan
|
World
|
|
2015-20
|
84.08
|
71.65
|
0.16
|
0.23
|
2020-25
|
84.81
|
72.69
|
0.15
|
0.21
|
2025-30
|
85.51
|
73.65
|
0.14
|
0.19
|
2030-35
|
86.20
|
74.57
|
0.14
|
0.18
|
2035-40
|
86.84
|
75.45
|
0.13
|
0.18
|
2040-45
|
87.47
|
76.28
|
0.13
|
0.17
|
2045-50
|
88.07
|
77.07
|
0.12
|
0.16
|
2050-55
|
88.68
|
77.83
|
0.12
|
0.15
|
2055-60
|
89.25
|
78.54
|
0.11
|
0.14
|
2060-65
|
89.83
|
79.18
|
0.12
|
0.13
|
2065-70
|
90.37
|
79.82
|
0.11
|
0.13
|
2070-75
|
90.97
|
80.41
|
0.12
|
0.12
|
2075-80
|
91.55
|
80.98
|
0.12
|
0.11
|
2080-85
|
92.07
|
81.53
|
0.10
|
0.11
|
2085-90
|
92.61
|
82.10
|
0.11
|
0.11
|
2090-95
|
93.15
|
82.65
|
0.11
|
0.11
|
2095-2100
|
93.70
|
83.17
|
0.11
|
0.10
|
In Table 2 we can compare the real data with UN
predictions made in 2012 for the 2010-2015 period, and find that, for a given
country, sometimes they are accurate (as for the US), sometimes they
overestimate, and sometimes they underestimate. The reason is that the UN
simply assumes that current trends will continue, and therefore their
predictions are less reliable the longer the period predicted. Anyway, if not
in detail, the average predictions can be considered a good preliminary
estimate. It can be seen that, rather than acceleration, and contrary to the
transhumanists, the UN expects a continuous deceleration of the increase in
life expectancy during this century.
Manuel Alfonseca
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