Polls and opinion
surveys often predict results that never happen. Is there a scientific reason that
can explain it? I think so. The problem could be that the mathematical theories
behind the polls are misapplied.

A branch of
statistics is called

**. It was invented to solve the problem of estimating whether the products of a factory are well made or defective, without having to analyze them one by one, which would be too costly.***sample theory*
Let us say,
for example, that a factory produces

**. In theory they should be checked one by one, but since that is impossible, only one part is analyzed. Which part? This is what sample theory tries to solve.***one million screws a day*
Suppose we
analyze just 2000 screws, and find that one of them is defective (0.05%). Can
we extend this result to the million screws and assert that in that population
there will be approximately

**?***500 defective screws*